In today’s media landscape, it can feel like everything is labeled a “crisis” but it’s worth remembering what true crises look like — World Wars, the Great Depression, or (for some) the Oilers winning another Stanley Cup.
While equipment values declined an average of 10% in 2024, this comes after three consecutive years of steady growth. Lenders should take comfort in the fact that their collateral continues to hold substantial value, and auction activity remains robust. In real estate, the outlook is similarly reassuring. Aside from modest declines in the industrial sector in Vancouver and Toronto, asset values have held firm (note, office towers were excluded from this analysis).
For this Digest, we’re especially grateful to our partners at Rouse/Ritchie Bros., world-leading experts in equipment transactions, for providing the data used in this month’s report.
Key Takeaways this Month:
Auction volumes softened in 2024 for the first time in recent years, but elevated equipment supply, especially from prior-year build-ups, continues to weigh on prices in some categories.
Truck tractor and excavator sales were strong in 2024, with volumes up 19% and 23% YoY, respectively. Early 2025 results show sales volume growth has softened at 3.5% and -41%, respectively, in these categories.
While various factors are at play, one potential reason for the pricing dynamic is owing to the abundance of U.S. buyers entering the Canadian market, taking advantage of ample supply and a weak Canadian dollar.
Prices Generally Holding Despite Increased Supply: Auction volumes for truck-tractors and mid-sized excavators surged in 2023 and continue to rise, with 2024 volumes up an aggregate 60% and 240%, respectively, over 2022 levels. Prices have held reasonably well considering the surge in auction volumes and appear to show some stabilization in 2024. Average prices for truck tractors fell sharply in 2023 amid supply shocks and continue to show modest declines YoY (prices fell -17% and -4% YoY in 2023 and 2024, respectively). Average prices for mid-sized excavators appear to be less sensitive to supply shocks, falling only -12% YoY in 2023, and rebounding 4% YoY in 2024. Notably, excavator trends vary significantly depending on size, market application, and hours.
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Outside of cranes and general excavators (skewed by the variety of sizes) construction equipment values remain strong.
Industrial/transportation prices fell in 2024 but generally remain above 2022 and prior years values.
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General agricultural prices were soft in 2024 while other segments remain strong.
Prices Normalizing, But Remain Above 2020 Levels: Prices of most assets were down from the 2023 highs but remain above 2020–2022 values. The timing of acquisitions and loans is important to consider in the current market.
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Retail strip mall valuations remain flat across the country.
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Canada’s largest two cities are showing softening industrial prices while the remainder of Canada stays flat.
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Home prices across the country continue to trend higher, with the exception of Toronto.
Pick Your Asset and Market: Although real estate values remain robust across Canada, certain asset classes in certain cities are showing weakness – specifically, Vancouver and Toronto’s industrial sectors.
Diamond Willow in partnership with:
Sources: Rouse Services, Ritchie Bros, CBRE, Diamond Willow Advisory.
